Pearce touts poll that shows him trailing by 8 points

Posted 8/01/2008 09:12:00 AM

Republican Senate candidate Steve Pearce is touting as good news a weeks-old survey that shows him trailing Democratic opponent Tom Udall by 8 percentage points.

That’s because other polls have shown Pearce trailing by much greater margins.

Meanwhile, an independent group has set its sights on Pearce in a new TV ad that’s running in the Albuquerque television market.

The Zogby “interactive analysis” -- an online survey of 464 likely voters in New Mexico that Zogby says are representative of the adult population -- had Udall leading Pearce, 49 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.6 percent, and Zogby states that such surveys were “remarkably accurate” during the 2006 midterm elections.

The survey was conducted June 11-30, but it wasn’t released until Wednesday.

A more recent poll -- a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 24 -- had Udall ahead by 25 points, 59 percent to 34 percent. The survey of 700 likely voters had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. In addition, Rasmussen Reports’ June poll had Udall ahead 28 points. Its May poll had him leading by 16.

And a SurveyUSA poll released June 2 had Udall beating Pearce in what was then a hypothetical contest (the primary was the next day) by 25 points, 60 percent to 35 percent. That survey of 1,869 registered voters had a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.

Though polls conducted before and after the Zogby survey show Udall with a larger lead, the Pearce campaign touted the Zogby survey -- which it called a “new” poll -- in a Wednesday news release stating that the poll “shows Udall’s lead crashing.”

“Withering from New Mexicans’ dissatisfaction with high gas prices, Udall’s lead has fallen from nearly 30 points down to single digits,” the Pearce news release states.

“New Mexicans are finding out about the real Tom Udall,” Pearce said in the release. “Tom and the hysterical environmentalists are standing in the way of American prosperity and making it harder for families struggling to pay high energy costs.”

A Udall campaign spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Independent, moderate and Hispanic voters are putting Democrat Tom Udall in position to take the seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici,” the Zogby analysis of the survey states.

Moderates favored Udall in the survey by a 2-to-1 margin, according to Zogby. Udall had a 10-percent advantage among independents. Nearly twice as many Hispanics supported Udall than Pearce. The two were even among men, but Udall had a “solid lead” among women, the analysis states.

Pearce’s strengths, according to Zogby, “are with the traditional GOP voters: regular church goers and gun owners.”

Independent group targets Pearce

Meanwhile, Patriot Majority West is out with a new ad targeting Pearce. It’s an independent group whose mission, according to its Web site, is to “pursue new policies that strengthen our national security, boost the economy and create good paying jobs, achieve energy independence, make health care affordable, provide quality education to all children and protect the public safety of all citizens.”

Here’s the 30-second spot:

“The choice? Depend on foreign oil from countries that hate America or develop clean-energy options here in New Mexico,” the ad’s narrator states. “So why has Congressman Steve Pearce opposed incentives for American-made renewable energy? And why has Congressman Pearce sided with George Bush to give oil companies billions in special tax breaks?”

“Tell Congressman Pearce to stop siding with Big Oil. It’s our patriot duty to stop sending money to the Mideast,” the narrator states.

The group uses the ad to promote its petition for energy independence, which you can find on the group’s home page.