Obama leads Clinton in new N.M. poll
Posted 2/02/2008 03:34:00 PM
A new poll of New Mexico Democrats – the first conducted since Bill Richardson left the presidential race – has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by six points.
However, that’s within the margin of error of 7 percent.
The statewide survey of 207 New Mexico Democrats who are likely to vote, conducted Jan. 22-31, had Obama up 48 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided.
“It seems like a great poll, but we know that we are underdogs in this state and we’re going to scrap and fight for change,” said Obama spokesman Trevor Fitzgibbon. “That’s why we have canvassers out in 17 communities and cities pushing for change right now, because we are underdogs.”
The poll is significant in advance of Tuesday’s Democratic Party caucus because it’s the first survey to indicate the dynamics of the race without
The poll was conducted by students in the Political Research Skills government course at
The Demographics of those surveyed are fairly close to the state’s demographics, Garcia said, so he is confident in the poll. However, a number of factors could lead to different results when Democrats vote on Tuesday, he said. Polling has become more difficult over the years, in part because of the increased use of cell phones, and polls in
“At this point I would go with the poll and say that’s the likely outcome, unless there is a significant difference in turnout,” Garcia said.
The poll found
The poll did not account for the fact that others will appear on the ballot on Tuesday – including
The survey was part of a larger poll of 409 New Mexicans that also asked about the GOP presidential primary, the U.S. Senate race and the popularity of the governor and president.
The survey of 142 Republicans found John McCain with the support of 44 percent and a huge lead in
New Mexico Republicans aren’t holding their presidential primary until June.
The poll found Democrat Tom Udall with a 53 percent to 31 percent lead over Republican Steve Pearce in a potential general-election contest and a 58 percent to 30 percent lead over Republican Heather Wilson in a potential general-election contest.
President George W. Bush has a 31-percent approval rating in
The questions about the Senate race and president have a margin of error of 5 percent.
You can see the entire poll by clicking here.
Update, Feb. 3, 9 p.m.
Kristin Lee, the
“Here’s what we know: We have a tremendous amount of support in the state. We have a great organization. And we have the only candidate who supports universal health care, a candidate with the best solutions for how to fix the economy and a candidate with the experience to end the war in Iraq,” Lee said. “There is so much excitement for Hillary Clinton here, and we’re expecting to do very well on Tuesday.”